September 3, 2010

social media in 2018

i thought i would throw my hat into the technology-crystal-ball-gazing ring.

i have a theory that the things people do online, reflect the things that people do in the real world, so these series of predictions are based on this premise.

social media is simply a reflection of social networks and activities seen in day to day life. the social groups may be different and more geographically dispersed, but i think they are fundamentally the same. as humans, i don’t believe that the way we relate to each other has changed much in the millions of years that we have been here. so on that basis, here are the predictions.

social media explosion

over the coming years there will be a massive increase in the amount of social media applications and social media adopters. social media really is still in its infancy right now. i see new startups every week and almost every website has the obligatory “beta” stamped on it (how can gmail still be in beta??).

all these new sites and services are really just experiments to find out what people want or need. most of these companies will not succeed.

social media amalgamation

in probably two years time, adoption of these services will start accelerating a little faster than they have been. only time will tell how many will win out and not go broke, or be bought and integrated. there will be fewer services but they will be more widely subscribed to.

further amalgamation

in probably five years time, the platform type web 2.0 companies will be very strong. if they can interoperate they will succeed. facebook and myspace accounts will be used as your online identity. you buy, sell and relate online via your identities on these platforms. so they must interoperate. it is much like our current real world identities our bank accounts and credit card numbers. the credit card and bank accounts we use would be useless if banks did not interoperate with each other and the services that we use with them to transact (shopping, paying bills).

your facebook (or myspace) account would be your passport online. your credit card or pay pal details would all be hosted on facebook and you would transact simply by visiting online stores through your account. it will be increasingly difficult to trade without an social utility account much like a credit card today.

increasing trust

for the future to work, your online identities will need to be verified and secured. signing up to one of these services will require a positive identification process. once this is complete, you are provided with a digital signature that will allow you to transact and enter into contracts online. your employment details and education details are automatically updated by employers and educational institutions.

the death of the giants

microsoft and google are strong brands now but in 8 or 10 years time, they are losing their relevance in the face of disruptive social technologies. search by robots is becoming increasingly less relevant as searches through social bookmarking becomes the de-facto standard. social searches are in fact human powered search, automated. the google pagerank is obsolete.

windows is replaced by virtual desktops online, that have advantage of being continuously backed up and completely shared and integrated into your online identity. forget the network operating system, now it’s time for the social operating system. bandwidth is no longer an issue.

social media is obsolete

everything is social. online reflects the real world. our networks in the real world are totally reflected in the online world. the system will continuously monitor our relationships with people and increase and decrease their access to our information as in the real world when acquaintances become friends, and friends become lovers, or vice versa. this reflects how we do this in the real world anyway by our level of engagement with particular people.

social media is looked upon as an archaic term, like “information superhighway” is now. everything is now social. we are all connected.

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why is social media important?

the evolution of media

every so often there is a quantum leap in technology. changes that are more than just a step change or an improvement. these changes are considered disruptive changes. they are changes that initially look like the poor younger cousin of the dominant technology, but rapidly overtake and eclipse the established technology.

an example of this is digital photography. initially when digital cameras were introduced they were prohibitively expensive and the quality was very low. over time though, the quality increased and there are now very few firms engaged in film production. consumers to professionals now predominantly use digital photography, because it is inexpensive and provides instant feedback.

in publishing, newspapers have been around since the 1575 and have gone through different methods of production (some of these are considered disruptive changes of themselves) but they have basically remained the same. however, with the increased availability of internet access, newspaper have increasingly moved online. there is recognition of the fact that people are wanting to read their news online with richer content. in the case of white collar workers who spend 8 hours a day in front of a pc, it just makes sense.

then came blogging. an adaptation of the term weblog, blogging enabled just about anyone to put their thoughts and ideas online simply and quickly. it was press, by and for the people. sign up to any of the major blogging services and putting ideas to the internet is almost as easy as using a word processor.

blogstars & you

there are many reasons why blogging has become so successful, one of which is that it gives readers the choice of perspective, and not just one presented by the two global media giants. it can also give readers a very unique perspective. the “blogger of baghdad” gave people a peek into daily life in iraq during the gulf war.

bloggers themselves have become opinion leaders, and the more tech saavy, and particularly in tech pr, key bloggers are consulted as a journo would be. an good example is robert scoble. scoble came to fame as an outspoken employee of microsoft.

a progressive technology company, microsoft encourages it’s employees to blog. scoble at the time was technical evangelist and his blog became popular because he was he was often brutally honest about his employer and had no fear in criticising microsoft where he thought they were wrong.

rather than damaging microsoft’s reputation, it gave the company a very real face and built a relationship with one of it’s most important publics, the techs.

scoble has now moved onto other projects but his blog still attracts several thousand readers daily. now bear in mind this is not a multi-billion dollar enterprise, it is one guy writing stuff online with now advertising. however if scoble mentions a technology, particularly a new technology, there’s a very good chance that if it’s a startup, it will get a significant boost in both signups and credibility.

do you think then that it would be worth including scoble in a technology product you may have? ex-googlers friendfeed and microsoft still do.

on a more populist route, and a much larger scale celebrity gossip blogger perez hilton gets approximately 4 million hits a day. again, is this a significant enough number that publicists need to pay attention to? i think so.

i believe it would be safe to say that bloggers have influence on public opinion.

online social networks

unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, most people will have heard about facebook. if you haven’t, facebook describes itself as a social utility to enable friends, family and colleagues stay in touch. the 70 million users is testament to it’s usefulness.

everyday people share their thoughts and lives on the platform, uploading photos of things they’ve done, witnessed or experienced, they communicate by writing on each other’s “walls” which is akin to leaving a sticky note on someone’s monitor or simply send emails to their friends.

all these conversations are happening everyday outside facebook as well, but those conversations as an organisation, you can’t be a part of very easily.

facilitating conversations

one of the few models at our disposal in pr is grunig’s four models of communications and for much of the traditional media, the nature of communication is very much one-way. the sender (organisation) sends messages but gets very little, if any, feedback.

in social media though, there is definitely feedback, and readers have mechanisms, depending on the social media platform, have many different ways of sending feedback back to the organisation. you can gauge very quickly, who is interested in what you have to say, and who is not. you can also identify those who are positive and those who have negative responses to the things you or your organisation is involved with. this becomes a two-way symmetrical exchange.

even more interesting is that you can see who is listening. social media is as about social groups. so there are the opinion leaders and those that are listening. it is now possible to target these groups directly. don’t you want to be part of that conversation?

they are not a rabble assembling outside of the front of your building protesting at this stage. they are voicing their opinions online, and if you tune in, you can prevent the rabble.

when these audiences feel they can voice their views directly to the people inside the organisation, and not just the faceless corporation, there is more likely to be forgiveness, and understanding.

people just want to be heard.

social media is important

online media is becoming more and more important, and over time, its relevance will will only increase over time and not diminish.

the internet is representative of the real world because there is real people behind it, and people congregate and talk. when people talk, there are talkers and listeners. this makes online media increasingly social media.

now more than ever the internet makes it easier and easier to open the communications channels to a wider audience. truly facilitating two way communications.

as time moves on, the question is not whether social media will be important, it will be a question of whether or not you will be part of the conversation.

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what’s the buzz?

social media lends itself to some very useful applications.

in the old days when pr’s wanted to get a feel for public sentiment, they had to go out and do surveys and ask alot of questions. nowadays with social media, there are a number of tools that let you simply search for terms that people are using, when they write on walls in facebook, searching in google, or tweeting on twitter.

well I found twistori through nathan’s blog which almost turns social media into art and is mesmerising.

twistori provides a feed in which other people tweets which contain the words:

  • love
  • hate
  • think
  • feel
  • wish

are displayed on one side and you can select one and all of the tweets containing those words are streamed down to you.

more of a novelty than a tool, but it displays beautifully and gives you a bit of a snapshot of what’s on people’s minds.

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