September 3, 2010

future social ii: security and monetisation

so there are a bunch of horrified people reading my last post thinking: “what the hell drugs is he on?!”

the assumption for a very long time is that advertising was the way forward for web companies to make money. the assumption has been that we need to come up with some way to advertise in order to monetize web because people are not going to pay for web apps.

advertising to support web apps is an outdated and is a web 1.0 mindset.

that’s right little old me just made a very bold statement. here is why.

in what other scenario would you adopt a strategy in the marketplace where:

  • everyone else was trying to do it that way and not having much success;
  • every day, more people are in the same marketplace adopting the same strategy;
  • your customers are sick of the whole model because they’re being pitched at all the time; and
  • do everything in their power to circumvent your means of income?

you don’t have to be an mba to work out that’s madness.

i can only go back to marketing 101: “what is your point of difference?”

in the case of facebook, the point of difference is that people willingly submit identifying information. they willingly supply identity information. in return for that they can exchange photos and messages and add apps. that is one thing you can do with that capability, but why don’t facebook actually capitalise on their point of difference and harness that identity information.

throw that outdated mentality of “advertise! advertise! advertise!” out of the window.

before we get to the juicy bit…

security

facebook does not instill trust. not only is it not secure, it doesn’t feel secure.

think about this:

  • do the spammy apps contribute in any kind of positive way to the environment?
  • do the constant ads about sexy-single-women-who-want-you-now add anything positive to the environment?
  • do either of them add negativity?
  • how much revenue do they really generate?

now think about this:

  • what if you totally trust the security of your account on facebook?
  • what if you could setup security down to individual object, a photo, wall post or video?
  • what if everything you uploaded was secure by default and you had to choose to share with specific groups or circles of friends?
  • what if your account was securely encrypted and you could be sure that only the people whom who were supposed to see content saw the content?

it would instil trust wouldn’t it? if facebook stopped being so aggressive with things like beacon, it would also instil trust wouldn’t it?

okay, so i won’t get into the nitty gritty here, but let’s say facebook get their security where it was similar to that of an online bank, and make it really logical and simple for users to use and understand. what next?

monetisation

switch the spammy apps to commerce apps. turn facebook into not only a trusted online platform for commerce, but a trusted identity provider. instead of logging onto 30 different bank accounts, mail accounts, online stores, create one identity on facebook and have facebook verify the user’s identity.

something like open id but even more positive. the avenues to generate increase dramatically. sure, the photo sharing and messaging will still be there, people won’t pay for those services but what about:

  • for an extra yearly fee, it becomes your single sign-on point, banking, email, everything;
  • your employment information and education information can be authorised to credit providers so there is no additional paperwork, charged per transaction;
  • you can sign contracts and execute agreements; or
  • send secure messages to government departments or banks.

the possibilities are endless.

what’s more, the user gets all the free features and can pay for added value, the added value would actually be valuable to the user.

what’s more, they could charge a blend of:

  • monthly fees;
  • per transaction; or
  • one off.

the trick would be to strike that balance. thoughts?

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social media in 2018

i thought i would throw my hat into the technology-crystal-ball-gazing ring.

i have a theory that the things people do online, reflect the things that people do in the real world, so these series of predictions are based on this premise.

social media is simply a reflection of social networks and activities seen in day to day life. the social groups may be different and more geographically dispersed, but i think they are fundamentally the same. as humans, i don’t believe that the way we relate to each other has changed much in the millions of years that we have been here. so on that basis, here are the predictions.

social media explosion

over the coming years there will be a massive increase in the amount of social media applications and social media adopters. social media really is still in its infancy right now. i see new startups every week and almost every website has the obligatory “beta” stamped on it (how can gmail still be in beta??).

all these new sites and services are really just experiments to find out what people want or need. most of these companies will not succeed.

social media amalgamation

in probably two years time, adoption of these services will start accelerating a little faster than they have been. only time will tell how many will win out and not go broke, or be bought and integrated. there will be fewer services but they will be more widely subscribed to.

further amalgamation

in probably five years time, the platform type web 2.0 companies will be very strong. if they can interoperate they will succeed. facebook and myspace accounts will be used as your online identity. you buy, sell and relate online via your identities on these platforms. so they must interoperate. it is much like our current real world identities our bank accounts and credit card numbers. the credit card and bank accounts we use would be useless if banks did not interoperate with each other and the services that we use with them to transact (shopping, paying bills).

your facebook (or myspace) account would be your passport online. your credit card or pay pal details would all be hosted on facebook and you would transact simply by visiting online stores through your account. it will be increasingly difficult to trade without an social utility account much like a credit card today.

increasing trust

for the future to work, your online identities will need to be verified and secured. signing up to one of these services will require a positive identification process. once this is complete, you are provided with a digital signature that will allow you to transact and enter into contracts online. your employment details and education details are automatically updated by employers and educational institutions.

the death of the giants

microsoft and google are strong brands now but in 8 or 10 years time, they are losing their relevance in the face of disruptive social technologies. search by robots is becoming increasingly less relevant as searches through social bookmarking becomes the de-facto standard. social searches are in fact human powered search, automated. the google pagerank is obsolete.

windows is replaced by virtual desktops online, that have advantage of being continuously backed up and completely shared and integrated into your online identity. forget the network operating system, now it’s time for the social operating system. bandwidth is no longer an issue.

social media is obsolete

everything is social. online reflects the real world. our networks in the real world are totally reflected in the online world. the system will continuously monitor our relationships with people and increase and decrease their access to our information as in the real world when acquaintances become friends, and friends become lovers, or vice versa. this reflects how we do this in the real world anyway by our level of engagement with particular people.

social media is looked upon as an archaic term, like “information superhighway” is now. everything is now social. we are all connected.

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